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FC Bayern München

Prediction Intelligence
FC Bayern München

Live data for professional portfolio management, trading and predictions.

Position
4.
Points
4
Goal diff
+4
Next match
Elversberg vs Bayern
Akte Bayern — Club-Dossier FC Bayern München
Intelligence
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At a glance

Bayern sit 4th after matchday 2 with 4 points (1W 1D 0L, goal diff +4). Last 5 form: WD (4/15 pts). Next opponent: Elversberg (3th).

Bundesliga Table

Bundesliga table matchday 2
# Club P W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Freiburg 2 2 0 0 5 1 +4 6
2 BVB 2 2 0 0 5 2 +3 6
3 Elversberg 2 2 0 0 7 5 +2 6
4 Bayern 2 1 1 0 5 1 +4 4
5 Leverkusen 2 1 0 1 6 3 +3 3
6 Augsburg 1 1 0 0 3 0 +3 3
7 Leipzig 2 1 0 1 4 3 +1 3
8 Stuttgart 2 1 0 1 5 6 -1 3
9 Werder 2 1 0 1 4 5 -1 3
10 Koeln 2 1 0 1 4 6 -2 3
11 Eintracht 1 0 1 0 3 3 0 1
12 Mainz 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1
13 Paderborn 2 0 1 1 0 1 -1 1
14 Schalke 04 2 0 1 1 0 3 -3 1
15 Union 2 0 1 1 3 7 -4 1
16 Hoffenheim 2 0 0 2 4 6 -2 0
17 HSV 1 0 0 1 0 2 -2 0
18 Gladbach 2 0 0 2 3 7 -4 0

Top Scorers

Bundesliga Top Scorers Season 28321

  1. 1
    Younes Ebnoutalib
    Younes Ebnoutalib
    Eintracht · 22
    3 Goals
  2. 2
    Yuito Suzuki
    Yuito Suzuki
    Freiburg · 24
    3 Goals
  3. 3
    Patrik Schick
    Patrik Schick
    Leverkusen · 30
    2 Goals
  4. 4
    Serhou Guirassy
    Serhou Guirassy
    BVB · 30
    2 Goals
  5. 5
    Josha Vagnoman
    Josha Vagnoman
    Stuttgart · 25
    2 Goals
# Player Club Goals
6 Thijs Dallinga Koeln 2
7 Maurice Krattenmacher Elversberg 2
8 David Mokwa Elversberg 2
9 Ridle Baku Leipzig 2
10 Hugo Bolin Gladbach 2

Pinnacle Oracle

Elversberg Bayern
Home 11.15
Draw 6.98
Away 1.21
Source: Pinnacle Updated:
Elversberg Bayern
-- Days
-- Hrs
-- Min
Kickoff
Venue
Competition
Bundesliga

Form & Momentum

Bayern — Form & Home/Away

Last 5
WD
Home
3 Pts
Record: 1-0-0 Goals: 5:1
Away
1 Pts
Record: 0-1-0 Goals: 0:0

Last result: Draw. Last 5 form: W-D.

The form of the last five matches is the most important leading indicator for short-term bets. A team on a three-match win streak is significantly underpriced when the odds movement hasn't yet caught up with the momentum. The Pinnacle Oracle weights this form at roughly 30 percent against table position (40 percent), home/away splits (20 percent) and opponent strength (10 percent).

Assists & Card Ranking

Bundesliga Top Assists

  1. 1
    Vladimír Coufal
    Vladimír Coufal
    Hoffenheim · 34
    2 Assists
  2. 2
    Joshua Kimmich 
    Joshua Kimmich 
    Bayern · 31
    2 Assists
  3. 3
    Franck Honorat
    Franck Honorat
    Gladbach · 30
    2 Assists
  4. 4
    Tidiam Gomis
    Tidiam Gomis
    Leipzig · 20
    2 Assists
  5. 5
    Ismael Saibari
    Ismael Saibari
    Bayern · 25
    2 Assists
# Player Club Assists
6 Josip Juranovic Union 2
7 Marco Grüll Werder 2
8 Miguel Gutiérrez Leverkusen 2
9 Lukas Pinckert Elversberg 1
10 Linton Maina Koeln 1

Bundesliga Card Ranking (Yellow + Red×3)

  1. 1
    Ron Schallenberg
    Ron Schallenberg
    Schalke 04 · 27
    0 1
  2. 2
    Samuele Inácio
    Samuele Inácio
    BVB · 18
    0 1
  3. 3
    Zeno Van Den Bosch
    Zeno Van Den Bosch
    Union · 23
    2 0
  4. 4
    Ibrahim Maza
    Ibrahim Maza
    Leverkusen · 20
    2 0
  5. 5
    Ozan Kabak
    Ozan Kabak
    Hoffenheim · 26
    2 0
# Player Club Y R Total
6 Dayot Upamecano Bayern 1 0 1
7 Grischa Prömel Stuttgart 1 0 1
8 Phillipp Mwene Mainz 1 0 1
9 Felix Uduokhai Union 1 0 1
10 Amara Condé Elversberg 1 0 1

Statistical Splits BETA

What actually moves Bayern's result — and what's myth. Bootstrap confidence intervals from 68 matches of the Kompany-Ära.

Split Group A Group B Δ ppg 95% CI p-value Significance
Home games vs. away games Home 2.59 ppg · n=34 Away 2.44 ppg · n=34 +0.15 [-0.29, 0.59] 0.55 ⚪
Versus top-6 opponents vs. rest of the league Vs top 6 2.40 ppg · n=20 Vs rest 2.56 ppg · n=48 -0.16 [-0.65, 0.31] 0.52 ⚪
With vs. without Joshua Kimmich in the starting XI With Joshua Kimmich 2.55 ppg · n=56 Without Joshua Kimmich 2.33 ppg · n=12 +0.22 [-0.41, 0.98] 0.56 🟡
With vs. without Harry Kane in the starting XI With Harry Kane 2.60 ppg · n=53 Without Harry Kane 2.20 ppg · n=15 +0.40 [-0.20, 1.06] 0.21 🟡
With vs. without Michael Olise in the starting XI With Michael Olise 2.49 ppg · n=51 Without Michael Olise 2.59 ppg · n=17 -0.10 [-0.57, 0.43] 0.70 ⚪
With vs. without Min-jae Kim in the starting XI With Min-jae Kim 2.52 ppg · n=46 Without Min-jae Kim 2.50 ppg · n=22 +0.02 [-0.44, 0.50] 0.94 ⚪
With vs. without Manuel Neuer in the starting XI With Manuel Neuer 2.68 ppg · n=44 Without Manuel Neuer 2.21 ppg · n=24 +0.47 [-0.01, 0.99] 0.06 🟡
Heavy week (after UCL/intl. break) vs. normal week Heavy week 2.24 ppg · n=38 Normal week 2.87 ppg · n=30 -0.63 [-1.01, -0.25] 0.00 🟢
After UCL midweek vs. without UCL before After UCL 2.03 ppg · n=30 No UCL 2.90 ppg · n=38 -0.86 [-1.29, -0.44] 0.00 🟢
Full strength (0 absences) vs. 2+ key-player absences 0 absences 2.33 ppg · n=15 2+ absences 2.32 ppg · n=25 +0.01 [-0.63, 0.67] 1.00 ⚪

Reading: 🟢 statistically significant · 🟡 indicative (sample or effect too small) · ⚪ no effect detectable · ⬜ untested

ppg = points per game (3 for a win, 1 for a draw, 0 for a loss). Δ ppg = difference in ppg between the two groups. 95% CI = bootstrap confidence interval (10,000 resamples). p-value < 0.05 = statistically significant at n ≥ 20.

Methodology: Single-Regime-Analyse (nur Kompany-Ära). xG fehlt im Plan und ist nicht enthalten. Bootstrap-CIs statt parametrischer Tests.
Not in dataset: xG, PPDA, Distance Covered

Myth Check BETA

What fans believe — and what the data says. Every myth is tested against real match data.

Indicative

"Without Kane, nothing works"

Indikativ: Mit 2.604 ppg, ohne 2.2 ppg — Trend deutlich (p≈0.206), Stichprobe für klares 🟢 zu klein.

Prediction relevance: Kein Adjustment nötig.

Refuted

"Bayern struggles against top-6 opponents"

Gegen Top 6: 2.4 ppg · gegen Rest: 2.563 ppg (Δ -0.163).

Prediction relevance: Top-6-Gegner haben keinen messbaren Sondereffekt.

Confirmed

"Midweek UCL games cost points"

Bestätigt: Nach CL-Spielen holt Bayern nur 2.033 ppg, ohne CL-Belastung 2.895 ppg (Δ -0.862, p=0). Stärkster Effekt im Datensatz.

Prediction relevance: Adjustment -28.73pp wenn Bayern aus einer CL-Woche kommt. Pinnacle preist diesen Effekt vermutlich nicht voll ein.

Refuted

"Home games are different"

Heim: 2.588 ppg · Auswärts: 2.441 ppg (Δ 0.147).

Prediction relevance: Heimvorteil ist nicht überdurchschnittlich.

Match clusters (K-Means + PCA) BETA

62 Bayern Bundesliga matches from the Kompany era in 10-dimensional feature vectors (possession, shots, passes, goals...). K-Means identifies 4 match types, PCA projects to 2D for visualization.

Matches in PC1/PC2 space

Each point = one match. Color = result. Hover for details.

PC1 — Offensive dominance PC2 — Efficiency VfL Wolfsburg (A) · 3:2 · 08/25/24 SC Freiburg (H) · 2:0 · 09/01/24 Holstein Kiel (A) · 6:1 · 09/14/24 Werder Bremen (A) · 5:0 · 09/21/24 Bayer 04 Leverkusen (H) · 1:1 · 09/28/24 Eintracht Frankfurt (A) · 3:3 · 10/06/24 VfB Stuttgart (H) · 4:0 · 10/19/24 VfL Bochum 1848 (A) · 5:0 · 10/27/24 FC Union Berlin (H) · 3:0 · 11/02/24 St. Pauli (A) · 1:0 · 11/09/24 FC Augsburg (H) · 3:0 · 11/22/24 Borussia Dortmund (A) · 1:1 · 11/30/24 Heidenheim (H) · 4:2 · 12/07/24 FSV Mainz 05 (A) · 1:2 · 12/14/24 RB Leipzig (H) · 5:1 · 12/20/24 Borussia Mönchengladbach (A) · 1:0 · 01/11/25 TSG Hoffenheim (H) · 5:0 · 01/15/25 VfL Wolfsburg (H) · 3:2 · 01/18/25 SC Freiburg (A) · 2:1 · 01/25/25 Holstein Kiel (H) · 4:3 · 02/01/25 Werder Bremen (H) · 3:0 · 02/07/25 Bayer 04 Leverkusen (A) · 0:0 · 02/15/25 Eintracht Frankfurt (H) · 4:0 · 02/23/25 VfB Stuttgart (A) · 3:1 · 02/28/25 VfL Bochum 1848 (H) · 2:3 · 03/08/25 FC Union Berlin (A) · 1:1 · 03/15/25 St. Pauli (H) · 3:2 · 03/29/25 FC Augsburg (A) · 3:1 · 04/04/25 Borussia Dortmund (H) · 2:2 · 04/12/25 Heidenheim (A) · 4:0 · 04/19/25 FSV Mainz 05 (H) · 3:0 · 04/26/25 RB Leipzig (A) · 3:3 · 05/03/25 Borussia Mönchengladbach (H) · 2:0 · 05/10/25 TSG Hoffenheim (A) · 4:0 · 05/17/25 RB Leipzig (H) · 6:0 · 08/22/25 Hamburger SV (H) · 5:0 · 09/13/25 FC Augsburg (A) · 3:2 · 08/30/25 TSG Hoffenheim (A) · 4:1 · 09/20/25 Werder Bremen (H) · 4:0 · 09/26/25 Eintracht Frankfurt (A) · 3:0 · 10/04/25 Borussia Dortmund (H) · 2:1 · 10/18/25 Borussia Mönchengladbach (A) · 3:0 · 10/25/25 Bayer 04 Leverkusen (H) · 3:0 · 11/01/25 FC Union Berlin (A) · 2:2 · 11/08/25 SC Freiburg (H) · 6:2 · 11/22/25 St. Pauli (H) · 3:1 · 11/29/25 VfB Stuttgart (A) · 5:0 · 12/06/25 FSV Mainz 05 (H) · 2:2 · 12/14/25 Heidenheim (A) · 4:0 · 12/21/25 VfL Wolfsburg (H) · 8:1 · 01/11/26 FC Köln (A) · 3:1 · 01/14/26 RB Leipzig (A) · 5:1 · 01/17/26 FC Augsburg (H) · 1:2 · 01/24/26 Hamburger SV (A) · 2:2 · 01/31/26 TSG Hoffenheim (H) · 5:1 · 02/08/26 Werder Bremen (A) · 3:0 · 02/14/26 Eintracht Frankfurt (H) · 3:2 · 02/21/26 Borussia Dortmund (A) · 3:2 · 02/28/26 Borussia Mönchengladbach (H) · 4:1 · 03/06/26 Bayer 04 Leverkusen (A) · 1:1 · 03/14/26 FC Union Berlin (H) · 4:0 · 03/21/26 SC Freiburg (A) · 3:2 · 04/04/26 Demolition Working win Narrow win Dominance
Win Draw Loss

Cluster overview

Match type n Wins Draws Losses Win % Poss. Shots Goals Conceded
Demolition 17 17 0 0 100% 63.4 20.4 4.6 0.6
Dominance 16 14 2 0 87.5% 75.4 23.4 3.8 0.8
Working win 13 9 3 1 69.2% 60.8 12.8 2.1 1
Narrow win 16 8 6 2 50% 69.8 18.3 2.1 1.4

Methodology: Explorative Cluster-Analyse, n=62 / 10 Features = grenzwertig. xG fehlt im SportMonks Plan. K-Means k=4 hardcoded, Cluster-Labels heuristisch nach Centroid-Eigenschaften.

Data Analysis

Auto-Generated Variante C · Spieltag 2

Champions League places after matchday 2: Freiburg (6), BVB (6), Elversberg (6), Bayern (4). Bayern sit 0 points ahead of 4th. Europa League places: Leverkusen (3), Augsburg (3).

This analysis rotates with every matchday through eight data-driven templates: league leadership, relegation battle, Champions League race, home/away splits, form trends, attack/defence, factual summary and overall view. Every statement is grounded in SportsMonks and Pinnacle data — no speculation, no hallucination.

What the data doesn't say

Table, form and odds show the status quo. They say nothing about whether a coach is on the verge of being sacked, a key player is injured, or the board is internally under pressure. This is exactly where the Predictions page comes in: there season markets (Polymarket), transfer rumours and schedule strength feed into the assessment — factors that don't show up in any standard statistic.

The FC Bayern München File in turn provides the historical context: which crises has the club survived, which not. Anyone moving money on Bundesliga markets needs all three layers — hard stats, forward markets and institutional memory.

Frequently Asked

Where do Bayern currently stand?
4th with 4 points after matchday 2 (1W 1D 0L, goal diff +4).
Who is Bayern's next opponent?
Elversberg, kickoff on 2026-09-13.
Who is the Bundesliga top scorer?
Younes Ebnoutalib (Eintracht) with 3 goals in the 28321 season.
Will Bayern be relegated?
Bayern are currently 4 points clear of the relegation places.

Related

The data shows the status quo. What does this mean for the season?