The FC Bayern München Files
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Predictions

FC Bayern München

Polymarket and Altus Alpha Predictions

Tools for professional traders.

Akte Bayern — Club-Dossier FC Bayern München
Predictions
Deutsch
Frequently Asked Questions
Where does Bayern stand in the table?
Bayern are 3th with 11 points after 5 matchdays. Goal difference: +12.
What transfers are expected at Bayern?
3 contracts expire in summer (Kimmich, Mueller, Ulreich). Squad value: 892M EUR. Next window: Sommer 2026.
What is the Pinnacle Oracle?
The Oracle removes the bookmaker margin (vig) from Pinnacle odds and normalizes to 100% — the sharpest available probability estimate.

Pinnacle Oracle

Oracle Pipeline BETA

Four stages, one question: where does Bayern's probability come from — and what moves it?

Augsburg vs Bayern · Sat, 10/10, 01:30 PM

1

Base Model

Table + ppg

Home31.3%
Draw24%
Away44.7%

Bayern: 44.7%

2

Adjustments

Statistical Intelligence

  • ⚪ Bayern away 0.0pp
Home31.3%
Draw24%
Away44.7%

Bayern: 44.7% (0.0pp)

3

Pinnacle Oracle

Vig-removed

Home11.1%
Draw11.5%
Away77.4%

Bayern: 77.4%

4

Smart Money

Line movement

Stage 4 in development — line history will be persisted from next season.

Model vs. Pinnacle: -32.7pp — Pipeline model sees Bayern weaker than Pinnacle

The pipeline is transparent: Stage 1 is a simple table model, Stage 2 applies significant splits from Statistical Intelligence, Stage 3 shows what Pinnacle (the sharpest bookmaker in the world) says. Stage 4 (sharp-money line movement) will follow once we persist line history.

Oracle data unavailable. Next update cycle shortly.

Value Signals

No active Polymarket events for FC Bayern München. Oracle data only.

Community Forecasts

Will Bayern win the Bundesliga 2025/26?

80%
Forecasters: 3 Closes:

Harry Kane: 30+ season goals?

72%
Forecasters: 3 Closes:

Bayern CL title 2025/26?

12%
Forecasters: 3 Closes:

Musiala transfer in summer 2026?

12%
Forecasters: 3 Closes:

Metaculus-style forecasts — no real money, fully compliant.

All 73 questions on Akte Bundesliga Forecasts →

Bundesliga Table · Matchday 5

# Club MP W D L GD Pts
1 Freiburg 5 4 1 0 +10 13
2 BVB 5 4 1 0 +7 13
3 Bayern 5 3 2 0 +12 11
4 Leverkusen 5 3 1 1 +6 10
5 Leipzig 5 3 0 2 +10 9
6 Augsburg 5 2 2 1 +5 8
7 Werder 5 2 2 1 0 8
8 Mainz 5 2 1 2 +3 7
9 Elversberg 5 2 1 2 0 7
10 Koeln 5 2 1 2 -2 7
11 Stuttgart 5 2 0 3 -1 6
12 HSV 5 2 0 3 -10 6
13 Schalke 04 5 1 2 2 -2 5
14 Eintracht 5 1 2 2 -7 5
15 Paderborn 5 1 1 3 -4 4
16 Union 5 1 1 3 -12 4
17 Hoffenheim 5 1 0 4 -4 3
18 Gladbach 5 0 0 5 -11 0