The FC Bayern München Files
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Predictions

FC Bayern München

Polymarket and Altus Alpha Predictions

Tools for professional traders.

Akte Bayern — Club-Dossier FC Bayern München
Predictions
Deutsch
Frequently Asked Questions
Where does Bayern stand in the table?
Bayern are 1th with 89 points after 34 matchdays. Goal difference: +86.
What transfers are expected at Bayern?
3 contracts expire in summer (Kimmich, Mueller, Ulreich). Squad value: 892M EUR. Next window: Sommer 2026.
What is the Pinnacle Oracle?
The Oracle removes the bookmaker margin (vig) from Pinnacle odds and normalizes to 100% — the sharpest available probability estimate.

Pinnacle Oracle

Oracle Pipeline BETA

Four stages, one question: where does Bayern's probability come from — and what moves it?

Bayern vs Koeln · Sat, 05/16, 01:30 PM

1

Base Model

Table + ppg

Home66.7%
Draw24%
Away9.3%

Bayern: 66.7%

2

Adjustments

Statistical Intelligence

  • ⚪ Bayern home 0.0pp
Home66.7%
Draw24%
Away9.3%

Bayern: 66.7% (0.0pp)

3

Pinnacle Oracle

Vig-removed

Home81.5%
Draw11%
Away7.5%

Bayern: 81.5%

4

Smart Money

Line movement

Stage 4 in development — line history will be persisted from next season.

Model vs. Pinnacle: -14.8pp — Pipeline model sees Bayern weaker than Pinnacle

The pipeline is transparent: Stage 1 is a simple table model, Stage 2 applies significant splits from Statistical Intelligence, Stage 3 shows what Pinnacle (the sharpest bookmaker in the world) says. Stage 4 (sharp-money line movement) will follow once we persist line history.

Oracle data unavailable. Next update cycle shortly.

Value Signals

No active Polymarket events for FC Bayern München. Oracle data only.

Community Forecasts

Will Bayern win the Bundesliga 2025/26?

80%
Forecasters: 3 Closes:

Harry Kane: 30+ season goals?

72%
Forecasters: 3 Closes:

Bayern CL title 2025/26?

12%
Forecasters: 3 Closes:

Musiala transfer in summer 2026?

12%
Forecasters: 3 Closes:

Metaculus-style forecasts — no real money, fully compliant.

All 73 questions on Akte Bundesliga Forecasts →

Bundesliga Table · Matchday 34

# Club MP W D L GD Pts
1 Bayern 34 28 5 1 +86 89
2 BVB 34 22 7 5 +36 73
3 Leipzig 34 20 5 9 +19 65
4 Stuttgart 34 18 8 8 +22 62
5 Hoffenheim 34 18 7 9 +13 61
6 Leverkusen 34 17 8 9 +21 59
7 Freiburg 34 13 8 13 -6 47
8 Eintracht 34 11 11 12 -4 44
9 Augsburg 34 12 7 15 -16 43
10 Mainz 34 10 10 14 -9 40
11 Union 34 10 9 15 -14 39
12 Gladbach 34 9 11 14 -11 38
13 HSV 34 9 11 14 -14 38
14 Koeln 34 7 11 16 -14 32
15 Werder 34 8 8 18 -23 32
16 Wolfsburg 34 7 8 19 -24 29
17 Heidenheim 34 6 8 20 -31 26
18 St. Pauli 34 6 8 20 -31 26