The FC Bayern München Files
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Predictions

FC Bayern München

Polymarket and Altus Alpha Predictions

Tools for professional traders.

Akte Bayern — Club-Dossier FC Bayern München
Predictions
Deutsch
Frequently Asked Questions
What transfers are expected at Bayern?
3 contracts expire in summer (Kimmich, Mueller, Ulreich). Squad value: 892M EUR. Next window: Sommer 2026.
What is the Pinnacle Oracle?
The Oracle removes the bookmaker margin (vig) from Pinnacle odds and normalizes to 100% — the sharpest available probability estimate.

Pinnacle Oracle

Oracle Pipeline BETA

Four stages, one question: where does Bayern's probability come from — and what moves it?

Bayern vs Koeln · Sat, 05/16, 01:30 PM

1

Base Model

Table + ppg

Home66.7%
Draw24%
Away9.3%

Bayern: 66.7%

2

Adjustments

Statistical Intelligence

  • ⚪ Bayern home 0.0pp
Home66.7%
Draw24%
Away9.3%

Bayern: 66.7% (0.0pp)

3

Pinnacle Oracle

Vig-removed

Home81.5%
Draw11%
Away7.5%

Bayern: 81.5%

4

Smart Money

Line movement

Stage 4 in development — line history will be persisted from next season.

Model vs. Pinnacle: -14.8pp — Pipeline model sees Bayern weaker than Pinnacle

The pipeline is transparent: Stage 1 is a simple table model, Stage 2 applies significant splits from Statistical Intelligence, Stage 3 shows what Pinnacle (the sharpest bookmaker in the world) says. Stage 4 (sharp-money line movement) will follow once we persist line history.

Oracle data unavailable. Next update cycle shortly.

Value Signals

No active Polymarket events for FC Bayern München. Oracle data only.

Community Forecasts

Will Bayern win the Bundesliga 2025/26?

80%
Forecasters: 3 Closes:

Harry Kane: 30+ season goals?

72%
Forecasters: 3 Closes:

Bayern CL title 2025/26?

12%
Forecasters: 3 Closes:

Musiala transfer in summer 2026?

12%
Forecasters: 3 Closes:

Metaculus-style forecasts — no real money, fully compliant.

All 73 questions on Akte Bundesliga Forecasts →

Bundesliga Table · Matchday 32

# Club MP W D L GD Pts
1 Bayern 32 26 5 1 +81 83
2 BVB 32 20 7 5 +33 67
3 Leipzig 32 19 5 8 +21 62
4 Leverkusen 32 17 7 8 +23 58
5 Stuttgart 32 17 7 8 +20 58
6 Hoffenheim 32 17 7 8 +16 58
7 Freiburg 32 12 8 12 -8 44
8 Eintracht 32 11 10 11 -3 43
9 Augsburg 32 11 7 14 -14 40
10 Mainz 32 9 10 13 -9 37
11 Gladbach 32 8 11 13 -13 35
12 HSV 32 8 10 14 -15 34
13 Union 32 8 9 15 -20 33
14 Koeln 32 7 11 14 -8 32
15 Werder 32 8 8 16 -20 32
16 Wolfsburg 32 6 8 18 -25 26
17 St. Pauli 32 6 8 18 -28 26
18 Heidenheim 32 5 8 19 -31 23