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FC Bayern München

Prediction Intelligence
for FC Bayern

Live data for professional portfolio management, trading and predictions.

Position
1.
Points
73
Goal diff
+73
Next match
St. Pauli vs Bayern
Akte Bayern — Club-Dossier FC Bayern München
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At a glance

Bayern sit 1th after matchday 28 with 73 points (23W 4D 1L, goal diff +73). Last 5 form: WWDWW (13/15 pts). Next opponent: St. Pauli (16th).

Bundesliga Table

Bundesliga table matchday 28
# Club P W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Bayern 28 23 4 1 100 27 +73 73
2 BVB 28 19 7 2 60 28 +32 64
3 Leipzig 28 16 5 7 55 36 +19 53
4 Stuttgart 28 16 5 7 56 38 +18 53
5 Hoffenheim 28 15 5 8 55 41 +14 50
6 Leverkusen 28 14 7 7 58 39 +19 49
7 Eintracht 28 10 9 9 52 53 -1 39
8 Freiburg 28 10 7 11 41 47 -6 37
9 Mainz 28 8 9 11 35 43 -8 33
10 Union 28 8 8 12 32 47 -15 32
11 Augsburg 28 9 5 14 34 51 -17 32
12 HSV 28 7 10 11 32 41 -9 31
13 Gladbach 28 7 9 12 35 48 -13 30
14 Werder 28 7 7 14 31 49 -18 28
15 Koeln 28 6 9 13 40 49 -9 27
16 St. Pauli 28 6 7 15 25 45 -20 25
17 Wolfsburg 28 5 6 17 38 63 -25 21
18 Heidenheim 28 3 7 18 29 63 -34 16

Top Scorers

Bundesliga Top Scorers Season 25646

  1. 1
    Harry Kane  
    Harry Kane  
    Bayern · 32
    31 Goals
  2. 2
    Deniz Undav
    Deniz Undav
    Stuttgart · 29
    18 Goals
  3. 3
    Luis Díaz
    Luis Díaz
    Bayern · 29
    15 Goals
  4. 4
    Serhou Guirassy
    Serhou Guirassy
    BVB · 30
    13 Goals
  5. 5
    Christoph Baumgartner
    Christoph Baumgartner
    Leipzig · 26
    12 Goals
# Player Club Goals
6 Michael Olise Bayern 11
7 Haris Tabakovic Gladbach 11
8 Yan Diomande Leipzig 10
9 Andrej Kramaric Hoffenheim 10
10 Said El Mala Koeln 10

Pinnacle Oracle

St. Pauli Bayern
Home 7.81
Draw 5.53
Away 1.37
Source: Pinnacle Updated:
St. Pauli Bayern
-- Days
-- Hrs
-- Min
Kickoff
Venue
Competition
Bundesliga

Form & Momentum

Bayern — Form & Home/Away

Last 5
WWDWW
Home
37 Pts
Record: 12-1-1 Goals: 56:13
Away
36 Pts
Record: 11-3-0 Goals: 44:14

Last result: Win. Last 5 form: W-W-D-W-W.

The form of the last five matches is the most important leading indicator for short-term bets. A team on a three-match win streak is significantly underpriced when the odds movement hasn't yet caught up with the momentum. The Pinnacle Oracle weights this form at roughly 30 percent against table position (40 percent), home/away splits (20 percent) and opponent strength (10 percent).

Assists & Card Ranking

Bundesliga Top Assists

  1. 1
    Michael Olise
    Michael Olise
    Bayern · 24
    18 Assists
  2. 2
    Julian Ryerson
    Julian Ryerson
    BVB · 28
    13 Assists
  3. 3
    Luis Díaz
    Luis Díaz
    Bayern · 29
    11 Assists
  4. 4
    Farès Chaïbi
    Farès Chaïbi
    Eintracht · 23
    9 Assists
  5. 5
    Andrej Ilic
    Andrej Ilic
    Union · 26
    8 Assists
# Player Club Assists
6 Bazoumana Touré Hoffenheim 8
7 Yan Diomande Leipzig 7
8 Alejandro Grimaldo Leverkusen 7
9 Wouter Burger Hoffenheim 7
10 Joshua Kimmich Bayern 7

Bundesliga Card Ranking (Yellow + Red×3)

  1. 1
    Dominik Kohr
    Dominik Kohr
    Mainz · 32
    8 2
  2. 2
    Niklas Stark
    Niklas Stark
    Werder · 30
    6 2
  3. 3
    Eric Martel
    Eric Martel
    Koeln · 23
    9 1
  4. 4
    Johan Manzambi
    Johan Manzambi
    Freiburg · 20
    4 2
  5. 5
    Moritz Jenz
    Moritz Jenz
    Wolfsburg · 26
    7 1
# Player Club Y R Total
6 Rocco Reitz Gladbach 7 1 8
7 Nicolai Remberg HSV 10 0 10
8 Fábio Vieira HSV 3 2 5
9 Miro Muheim HSV 6 1 7
10 Luis Díaz Bayern 6 1 7

Statistical Splits BETA

What actually moves Bayern's result — and what's myth. Bootstrap confidence intervals from 62 matches of the Kompany-Ära.

Split Group A Group B Δ ppg 95% CI p-value Significance
Home games vs. away games Home 2.61 ppg · n=31 Away 2.39 ppg · n=31 +0.23 [-0.26, 0.71] 0.37 ⚪
Versus top-6 opponents vs. rest of the league Vs top 6 2.37 ppg · n=19 Vs rest 2.56 ppg · n=43 -0.19 [-0.69, 0.31] 0.46 ⚪
With vs. without Joshua Kimmich in the starting XI With Joshua Kimmich 2.52 ppg · n=52 Without Joshua Kimmich 2.40 ppg · n=10 +0.12 [-0.58, 0.98] 0.82 🟡
With vs. without Harry Kane in the starting XI With Harry Kane 2.59 ppg · n=51 Without Harry Kane 2.09 ppg · n=11 +0.50 [-0.24, 1.30] 0.20 🟡
With vs. without Michael Olise in the starting XI With Michael Olise 2.47 ppg · n=49 Without Michael Olise 2.62 ppg · n=13 -0.15 [-0.65, 0.46] 0.59 🟡
With vs. without Manuel Neuer in the starting XI With Manuel Neuer 2.67 ppg · n=42 Without Manuel Neuer 2.15 ppg · n=20 +0.52 [-0.03, 1.11] 0.07 🟡
With vs. without Min-jae Kim in the starting XI With Min-jae Kim 2.51 ppg · n=41 Without Min-jae Kim 2.48 ppg · n=21 +0.04 [-0.45, 0.56] 0.90 ⚪
Heavy week (after UCL/intl. break) vs. normal week Heavy week 2.21 ppg · n=34 Normal week 2.86 ppg · n=28 -0.65 [-1.08, -0.24] 0.00 🟢
After UCL midweek vs. without UCL before After UCL 1.96 ppg · n=26 No UCL 2.89 ppg · n=36 -0.93 [-1.41, -0.45] 0.00 🟢
Full strength (0 absences) vs. 2+ key-player absences 0 absences 2.33 ppg · n=15 2+ absences 2.29 ppg · n=21 +0.05 [-0.61, 0.74] 0.89 ⚪

Reading: 🟢 statistically significant · 🟡 indicative (sample or effect too small) · ⚪ no effect detectable · ⬜ untested

ppg = points per game (3 for a win, 1 for a draw, 0 for a loss). Δ ppg = difference in ppg between the two groups. 95% CI = bootstrap confidence interval (10,000 resamples). p-value < 0.05 = statistically significant at n ≥ 20.

Methodology: Single-Regime-Analyse (nur Kompany-Ära). xG fehlt im Plan und ist nicht enthalten. Bootstrap-CIs statt parametrischer Tests.
Not in dataset: xG, PPDA, Distance Covered

Myth Check BETA

What fans believe — and what the data says. Every myth is tested against real match data.

Indicative

"Without Kane, nothing works"

Indikativ: Mit 2.588 ppg, ohne 2.091 ppg — Trend deutlich (p≈0.202), Stichprobe für klares 🟢 zu klein.

Prediction relevance: Kein Adjustment nötig.

Refuted

"Bayern struggles against top-6 opponents"

Gegen Top 6: 2.368 ppg · gegen Rest: 2.558 ppg (Δ -0.19).

Prediction relevance: Top-6-Gegner haben keinen messbaren Sondereffekt.

Confirmed

"Midweek UCL games cost points"

Bestätigt: Nach CL-Spielen holt Bayern nur 1.962 ppg, ohne CL-Belastung 2.889 ppg (Δ -0.927, p=0). Stärkster Effekt im Datensatz.

Prediction relevance: Adjustment -30.9pp wenn Bayern aus einer CL-Woche kommt. Pinnacle preist diesen Effekt vermutlich nicht voll ein.

Refuted

"Home games are different"

Heim: 2.613 ppg · Auswärts: 2.387 ppg (Δ 0.226).

Prediction relevance: Heimvorteil ist nicht überdurchschnittlich.

Match clusters (K-Means + PCA) BETA

62 Bayern Bundesliga matches from the Kompany era in 10-dimensional feature vectors (possession, shots, passes, goals...). K-Means identifies 4 match types, PCA projects to 2D for visualization.

Matches in PC1/PC2 space

Each point = one match. Color = result. Hover for details.

PC1 — Offensive dominance PC2 — Efficiency VfL Wolfsburg (A) · 3:2 · 08/25/24 SC Freiburg (H) · 2:0 · 09/01/24 Holstein Kiel (A) · 6:1 · 09/14/24 Werder Bremen (A) · 5:0 · 09/21/24 Bayer 04 Leverkusen (H) · 1:1 · 09/28/24 Eintracht Frankfurt (A) · 3:3 · 10/06/24 VfB Stuttgart (H) · 4:0 · 10/19/24 VfL Bochum 1848 (A) · 5:0 · 10/27/24 FC Union Berlin (H) · 3:0 · 11/02/24 St. Pauli (A) · 1:0 · 11/09/24 FC Augsburg (H) · 3:0 · 11/22/24 Borussia Dortmund (A) · 1:1 · 11/30/24 Heidenheim (H) · 4:2 · 12/07/24 FSV Mainz 05 (A) · 1:2 · 12/14/24 RB Leipzig (H) · 5:1 · 12/20/24 Borussia Mönchengladbach (A) · 1:0 · 01/11/25 TSG Hoffenheim (H) · 5:0 · 01/15/25 VfL Wolfsburg (H) · 3:2 · 01/18/25 SC Freiburg (A) · 2:1 · 01/25/25 Holstein Kiel (H) · 4:3 · 02/01/25 Werder Bremen (H) · 3:0 · 02/07/25 Bayer 04 Leverkusen (A) · 0:0 · 02/15/25 Eintracht Frankfurt (H) · 4:0 · 02/23/25 VfB Stuttgart (A) · 3:1 · 02/28/25 VfL Bochum 1848 (H) · 2:3 · 03/08/25 FC Union Berlin (A) · 1:1 · 03/15/25 St. Pauli (H) · 3:2 · 03/29/25 FC Augsburg (A) · 3:1 · 04/04/25 Borussia Dortmund (H) · 2:2 · 04/12/25 Heidenheim (A) · 4:0 · 04/19/25 FSV Mainz 05 (H) · 3:0 · 04/26/25 RB Leipzig (A) · 3:3 · 05/03/25 Borussia Mönchengladbach (H) · 2:0 · 05/10/25 TSG Hoffenheim (A) · 4:0 · 05/17/25 RB Leipzig (H) · 6:0 · 08/22/25 Hamburger SV (H) · 5:0 · 09/13/25 FC Augsburg (A) · 3:2 · 08/30/25 TSG Hoffenheim (A) · 4:1 · 09/20/25 Werder Bremen (H) · 4:0 · 09/26/25 Eintracht Frankfurt (A) · 3:0 · 10/04/25 Borussia Dortmund (H) · 2:1 · 10/18/25 Borussia Mönchengladbach (A) · 3:0 · 10/25/25 Bayer 04 Leverkusen (H) · 3:0 · 11/01/25 FC Union Berlin (A) · 2:2 · 11/08/25 SC Freiburg (H) · 6:2 · 11/22/25 St. Pauli (H) · 3:1 · 11/29/25 VfB Stuttgart (A) · 5:0 · 12/06/25 FSV Mainz 05 (H) · 2:2 · 12/14/25 Heidenheim (A) · 4:0 · 12/21/25 VfL Wolfsburg (H) · 8:1 · 01/11/26 FC Köln (A) · 3:1 · 01/14/26 RB Leipzig (A) · 5:1 · 01/17/26 FC Augsburg (H) · 1:2 · 01/24/26 Hamburger SV (A) · 2:2 · 01/31/26 TSG Hoffenheim (H) · 5:1 · 02/08/26 Werder Bremen (A) · 3:0 · 02/14/26 Eintracht Frankfurt (H) · 3:2 · 02/21/26 Borussia Dortmund (A) · 3:2 · 02/28/26 Borussia Mönchengladbach (H) · 4:1 · 03/06/26 Bayer 04 Leverkusen (A) · 1:1 · 03/14/26 FC Union Berlin (H) · 4:0 · 03/21/26 SC Freiburg (A) · 3:2 · 04/04/26 Demolition Working win Narrow win Dominance
Win Draw Loss

Cluster overview

Match type n Wins Draws Losses Win % Poss. Shots Goals Conceded
Demolition 17 17 0 0 100% 63.4 20.4 4.6 0.6
Dominance 16 14 2 0 87.5% 75.4 23.4 3.8 0.8
Working win 13 9 3 1 69.2% 60.8 12.8 2.1 1
Narrow win 16 8 6 2 50% 69.8 18.3 2.1 1.4

Methodology: Explorative Cluster-Analyse, n=62 / 10 Features = grenzwertig. xG fehlt im SportMonks Plan. K-Means k=4 hardcoded, Cluster-Labels heuristisch nach Centroid-Eigenschaften.

Data Analysis

Auto-Generated Variante E · Spieltag 28

Bayern home: 12W 1D 1L (37 pts from 14 games). Away: 11W 3D 0L (36 pts). Best home side: Bayern (37 pts). Best away side: Bayern (36 pts).

This analysis rotates with every matchday through eight data-driven templates: league leadership, relegation battle, Champions League race, home/away splits, form trends, attack/defence, factual summary and overall view. Every statement is grounded in SportsMonks and Pinnacle data — no speculation, no hallucination.

What the data doesn't say

Table, form and odds show the status quo. They say nothing about whether a coach is on the verge of being sacked, a key player is injured, or the board is internally under pressure. This is exactly where the Predictions page comes in: there season markets (Polymarket), transfer rumours and schedule strength feed into the assessment — factors that don't show up in any standard statistic.

The FC Bayern München File in turn provides the historical context: which crises has the club survived, which not. Anyone moving money on Bundesliga markets needs all three layers — hard stats, forward markets and institutional memory.

Frequently Asked

Where do Bayern currently stand?
1th with 73 points after matchday 28 (23W 4D 1L, goal diff +73).
Who is Bayern's next opponent?
St. Pauli, kickoff on 2026-04-11.
Who is the Bundesliga top scorer?
Niklas Stark (Werder) with 2 goals in the 25646 season.
Will Bayern be relegated?
Bayern are currently 48 points clear of the relegation places.
Will Bayern be German champions?
Polymarket prices Bayern's title probability at 99.3%.

Related

The data shows the status quo. What does this mean for the season?